中国民航机队老龄化正在提速
China Civil Aviation Fleet's Aging Pace Is Accelerating
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• 纵观上图可见：相较于欧美航司，以三大航和海航为代表的国内航司的机队还较为年轻。特别地，老龄飞机(机龄≥15岁)在国内三大航机队中的占比仅15%，然而在美国三大航中的机队占比达到46.5%。
• Compared with the US&EU flag carriers, Chinese domestic airlines’ fleet are still young relatively. In particular, ageing fleet(15 years old or above) accounts for only 15% of China’s Big 3 airlines(Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines namely), but it accounts for 46.5% of US Big 3 airlines(American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta AirLines namely).
• 2019年前，中国民航每年引进数百架新飞机，机队年均增速达10%，从而将民航机队的平均机龄维持在6-7岁水平。
• China took deliveries of hundreds of new aircrafts every year before 2019, with an average fleet growth rate of 10+% annually, which helps to keep the average age of China civil aviation fleet at 6-7 years range for multiple years.
• 然而近几年来，国内新飞机引进力度大滑坡，机队年均增速下滑到5%左右，导致机队平均机龄迅速攀升到如今的9-10岁水平，中国民航机队的老龄化正在提速。
• However, as the delivery pace of new aircrafts into China slows down dramatically in recent years, the average fleet growth rate has decreased to roughly 5% annually, hence the average fleet age has risen to 9-10 years rapidly. China civil aviation fleet is aging obviously.
• 海南航空的机队曾经要比三大航都年轻一些，但在漫长的债务危机和破产重组期间，海航一度四年多没有引进一架新飞机，因而当前机队的平均机龄已赶超三大航水平。
• Hainan Airlines’ fleet used to younger than China’s big 3 airlines, but it halted new aircraft deliveries for 4+ years mainly due to the lengthy bankruptcy restructuring and business reorganization of HNA Group, which accelerates the aging of Hainan Airlines’ fleet, now a bit older than China’s big 3 airlines in terms of average fleet age.
• 在国内三大航中，国航背负的老龄飞机”历史包袱”最沉重，机队中至今保有3架平均机龄高达28.2岁的B747-400机队，其中一架编号为B-2445的B747-400飞机，凭借30.5岁高龄，成为中国民航最年长的客机。
• Air China carries the heaviest burden of fleet legacy among the China Big 3 airlines, who still retains 3 B747-400 airplanes with average age of 28.2 years, among which, the B-2445 B747-400 aircraft, now 30.5 years old, is crowned the oldest passenger aircraft still in service of China’s civil aviation fleet.
• B-2445生产交付于1994年(满大街传唱李春波的《小芳》、林依轮的《爱情鸟》、孙悦的《祝你平安》那年)，我们至今还能在繁忙的京沪/京广航线上看到她伟岸又沧桑的容颜，当然，据说它将在今年暑运结束后正式退役。
• B-2445 was delivered to Air China back in 1994, and it is still in service on busy PEK-SHA/PEK-CAN routes. However, it’s rumored that B-2445 will retire officially in this Sep/Oct after the summer peak.
• 但如果放眼全球，国外民航客机比国内更不“服老”。全球民航现役机队中最年长的飞机，是加拿大Nolinor Aviation航空公司的一架B737-200飞机(编号C-GNLK)，它于1974年5月生产交付，至今已50岁高龄！
• Much more older aircrafts are still in passenger service commercially outside of China. Nolinor Aviation, a Canadian charter airline, flies C-GNLK, a 737-200 airplane, which is now 50 years old, the world’s oldest commercial airplane still in passenger operation.
• 加拿大地广人稀，基建较为落后，有些机场并不具备平整的混凝土跑道，只有B737-200飞机具备砂石跑道起降能力(发动机进气道小，保证了足够的离地距离)。因此，运营商业包机航线的Nolinor Aviation至今运营着6架B737-200飞机，平均机龄44.6年！
• Boeing 737-200 is the only model certified by Boeing for gravel runway operations, and as Nolinor Aviation’s president Marco Prud’Homme says that ”the 737-200 remains the optimal choice for serving the challenging northern regions of Canada”. Nolinor Aviation still operates 6 B737-200 airplanes with 44.6 years of average age, the world largest B737-200 operator.
• 在全球规模(机队规模≥100架)以上航司中，印度靛蓝航空(IndiGo)的机队是最年轻的，平均机龄仅为4.8年。这归因于IndiGo独树一帜的机队规划策略。IndiGo的机队全部以租赁方式引进，惯用套路是：
1. 用超级大订单向飞机制造商“团购”飞机以获取购机优惠；
2. 把飞机溢价卖给飞机租赁商赚取差价；
3. 通过售后回租交易将飞机租回，通常租期在5-6年；
4. 租约到期后将飞机退还给飞机租赁商，以规避老飞机带来的维修麻烦。
• Indian airline IndiGo, fleet average age of 4.8 years, has the youngest fleet among all the airlines with 100+ aircrafts in fleet, which is resulted from its unique fleet strategies. IndiGo’s whole fleet is on lease, and it usually would pursue a favorable aircraft purchasing price by placing mega orders, sell the airplane to lessors with higher price, and lease the aircraft back via Sales and Lease Back(SLB) transactions, with 5-6 years lease terms, and returns the aircraft back to the lessors at the end of the lease, to avoid aircraft heavy maintenance works, hence keeping the fleet young.
• 货运飞机，大多是客机退役后客改货而来，因而货航的机队平均机龄普遍高于客运航司，比如全球三大快递巨头(FedEx\UPS\DHL)的机队平均机龄分别高达17.6、21.2和21.8岁，而国内最大的货运航司-顺丰航空的机队全部为客改货而来，平均机龄更是高达26.5岁。
• A majority of freighter fleets are converted from retired passenger aircrafts, hence the average age of freighter fleet are usually older than of passenger carriers. For instance, the average fleet age of Top 3 air cargo carriers(FedEx\UPS\DHL) are 17.6, 21.2 and 21.8 years respectively. SF Airlines, the biggest air cargo carrier in China, has 88 freighters in fleet with average age of 26.5 years, as all of its fleet are converted from passenger airplanes.
• 顺丰航空机队中的一架编号为B-2899的757-200货机，曾是1989年波音交付中国南航的B757客机(编号B-2806)，这架“空中美男子”在南航服役了20年，于2009年光荣退役，被改成货机后加入了顺丰航空并服役至今，如今已35岁高龄，是中国民航现役最年长的飞机。
• SF Airlines’s B-2899 757-200P2F airplane, now 35 years old and still in operation, is the oldest commercial airplane of China civil aviation fleet. It was delivered to China Southern Airlines in 1989 as a passenger, converted to a cargo aircraft and delivered to SF Airlines in 2009.
• 当前飞机制造商受困于供应链等问题导致新飞机产能不足，航司不得不通过飞机续租、延迟退役等方式来保障运力需求，进而面临老龄飞机的运维管理挑战。好在，国内以顺丰航空为代表的货运航司积累了不少老龄飞机维修工程管理经验，可做他山之石。
• Faced with new aircraft shortages, airlines have to resort to lease extensions and retirement delays to keep flying schemes afloat, which bring about operational&engineering challenges of maintaining aging fleet operation. Chinese airlines, who operates a relatively young fleet, don’t have adequate knowledge of managing ageing fleet, fortunately, they might learn from peers of cargo airlines, SF Airlines for instance, who has accumulated necessary skills and experiences in freighter fleet operation and maintenance.
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| 当前全球航空供应链失衡、飞机/发动机制造
商产能交付不足，航司纷纷选择飞机续租或延迟退役来满足运力要求，进而面临着老龄飞机运维管理的挑战。中国民航的机队平均机龄一直较年轻，航司在老龄飞机维修工程管理方面的实践经验尚浅，在当前飞机维修和航材资源紧张的背景下，如何保障老龄机队持续适航安全运行且管控维修成本，是中国航司普遍关注的一大热点问题。
为此，本届老龄飞机维修工程管理研讨会拟定于2024年9月19-20日在广州举办，旨在邀请航司、飞机制造商、MRO和航材供应商代表共同围绕老龄飞机可靠性分析、维修方案优化、改装和延寿管理、结构完整性维护、发动机性能和送修方案等议题分享经验智慧。
Faced with aircraft production&delivery delays and supply chain constraints, airlines have to
resort to lease extensions and retirement delays to keep flying schemes afloat, which
brings about aged aircraft operational and maintenance management challenges. Chinese
airlines operates relatively young-age fleets and don't have adequate knowledge and experiences on maintaining ageing aircrafts.
Ageing Aircraft Engineering Management Seminar, to be held on Sep.19-20,2024 in Guangzhou, is designed to gather professionals
from airlines, aircraft/engine manufacturers, MROs and parts suppliers together to address
issues of ageing aircraft reliability analysis, maintenance plan&scheme optimization,
retrofit and life extension, continuing structural integrity and engine maintenance etc.
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| --议 程 / AGENDA-- |
| 9月19日 星期四 | Sep.19, 2024 THU | 会议议程 EVENT Agenda |
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| 09:00-09:40 |
从航司角度谈老龄飞机延飞的经济可行性分析
Economic Viability Analysis for Maintaining Ageing Aircraft from Airlines' Perspective
南航工程技术分公司/China Southern Airlines Technic
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| 09:40-10:30 |
航司老龄飞机管理圆桌讨论会
Airlines' RoundTable on Ageing Aircraft Management
• 续租或延迟退役背后的经济账:延飞几年？
• 机队规划管理: 短期和长期的平衡
• 持续适航管理：技术和人才挑战
• Economics behind aircraft lifespan extension: 2-3 years?
• Short term extension VS long term fleet planning
• Contineous airworthniness management challenges
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| 10:30-11:00 |
茶歇 | Coffee Break |
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| 11:00-11:40 |
从适航审定角度谈老旧飞机维修管理-规章和案例
Aged Aircraft MX Management From Airworthiness Certification Perspective
中国民航适航审定中心/CAAC Airworthiness Certification Center
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| 11:40-12:35 |
老龄飞机维修工程技术创新与实践
Engineering Technology Innovation in Maintaining Aging Aircraft Operation - SF’s Experiences
袁庆铭，总工程师，顺丰航空/YUAN Qingming, Chief Engineer, SF Airlines
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| 12:35-14:00 |
午餐 | Lunch |
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| 14:00-14:40 |
飞机改装与延寿服务为老旧飞机运营提供保障
OEM's Aircraft Retrofit and Life Extension Services to
Support Older Aircraft Operation
李晓冬，空客服务市场总监，空客公司/LI Xiaodong, Marketing Director, China, Airbus Services
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| 14:45-15:30 |
老龄飞机工程管理实践-困难和措施建议
Ageing Aircraft Structural and Component Repairs- Challenges & Solutions
罗小平，结构工程管理中心经理，海航技术/LUO Xiaoping, Aircraft Structural Engineering Center,
HNA Technics
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| 15:35-16:00 |
茶歇 | Coffee Break |
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| 16:00-16:45 |
老龄飞机市场与价值变化趋势
Aging Aircraft Fleet and Market Valuation Trends
IBA航空集团/IBA Aviation Group
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| 16:45-17:30 |
老龄飞机航材备件管理讨论会
Spare Parts RoundTable: An Unpromising Challenge
• 航材供应短缺及其安全影响
• 库存管理与提前采购策略
• PMA件开发使用
• Supply limites and its safety implications for ageing fleet
• Inventory management&spares stockpiling
• PMA Parts Usage&Development
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| 17:30 | 会议结束 | End of Conference |
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| 18:30-21:00 |
晚餐会 | Dinner Party |
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| 9月20日 星期五 | Sep.20, 2024 Friday | 会议议程 EVENT AGENDA |
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| 09:00-09:40 |
老龄飞机构型管理系统和实践
Ageing Aircraft Configuration Management Practise and Systems Development
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| 09:40-10:20 |
老龄飞机检审中的维修记录问题和解决措施
Technical Records Management in Ageing Aircraft
Structural Inspection&Audit
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| 10:20-10:50 | 茶歇 | Coffee Break |
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| 10:00-11:20 |
飞机改装和超手册修理管理-DMDOR/DER/DOA
Aircraft Retrofit & DMDOR/DER/DOA Repair Approvals
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| 11:20-11:50 |
B737-800 Freighter Conversion Program Optimization
Based on Fleet Operation Experiences
从运维实践角度谈B737-800客改货设计方案优化
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| 11:45-12:35 |
老旧飞机末期资产处置讨论会
Aircraft End-of-Life Trading&Disposal Round Table
• 退出机制: 售后回租交易
• 资产出售交易流程和账面价值问题
• 拆解与二手航材回购
• 发动机处置方式
• Phase-out Options: SLBs
• Aged aircraft transaction - procedures and book values
• Part-outs and USM buy-backs
• Engine disposals
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| 12:50-14:00 |
会议结束 & 告别午餐 | Farewell Lunch |
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航空租赁与金融
我们以专业资讯分享、专家访谈、专题培训和行业论坛等形式探讨和交流关于飞机和发动机资产管理相关的行业智慧与实践。
会议网站：http://www.opplandaviation.com |
更多论坛相关资料资讯, 请联系:
市场主管 孙女士:
@13564637605/echos@opplandcorp.com
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